Four-hundred years ago, the British needed tons of hemp to make the sails, ropes and riggings needed to maintain their global shipping empire.

The 20th century saw the weakened hemp industry all but disappear, as governments around the world banned production because one variant of the plant marijuana produces the intoxicating chemical THC.

Fast-forward to today: The hemp industry is undergoing a rebirth, particularly in the United States. U.S. hemp-derived CBD retail sales are projected to keep steady market growth through 2022, easily breaking $1 billion by 2020.

Why the rebound in the United States and elsewhere?

The same governments that banned hemp production because of its conflation with marijuana are reopening business opportunities, and private entrepreneurs are investing huge sums in developing the hemp market.

But hemp’s revival is happening largely in the dark. Some countries don’t track how much is being grown, and others have legal barriers that prevent hemp from getting the kind of data collection seen with other crops.

In the United States, the Department of Agriculture currently considers hemp legal only if grown as part of a state-backed pilot project. Because it is monitored by the states rather than at the federal level, no national records are kept on the nascent industry – not even how much hemp is growing and what farmers are doing with it.

And each state keeps its own wildly varying data on how their hemp experiments are going. The modern hemp industry has largely been reliant on optimistic projections from activists who want to see hemp’s revival flourish, rather than evidence-based data points about the market.

Current national sales predictions for hemp and CBD mirror the earliest and most exciting predictions for the cannabis industry overall. Between traditional brick-and-mortar stores and a booming e-commerce channel, CBD is projected to keep steady market growth through 2022, easily breaking $1 billion by 2020. Estimates presented here are modest and hinge greatly on legislation that has yet to be approved, but even amid regulatory constraints and ambiguity about hemp’s position in the market today, researchers have confidently concluded this is not a stagnant industry, nor is it expected to slow down any time soon.

• Estimates for sales vary between publications, but based on comprehensive study and industry surveys, these projections are the most accurate and carefully considered presentations today – despite the lack of governmental reporting on this agricultural commodity. This continued growth begs the question: Is there a limit – and what is the limit – to the potential for this industry?

Optimism reigns supreme among hemp cultivators. While 64% of survey respondents reported that their 2017 revenue left much to be desired, the same group of respondents have a positive outlook about their profits in 2018 – 77% expect to widen profit margins this year. With so much to consider, from legislation moving through the pipeline while the Factbook was being finalized to growing consumer interest deepened by medical research and mainstream media reporting, cultivators are not naive to the moving parts in the hemp industry and are maintaining genuine optimism for the potential of their crops to generate measurable profit very soon.

• With these considerations, what will optimism for industry growth bring to the market? Will confidence in profits translate to heightened competition or accelerated market saturation in the coming years for those already establishing themselves?

Hemp- and CBD-derived products maintain at least one distinct edge over their THC counterparts: the ability to distribute product through online sales. Survey data suggests many hemp and CBD retailers are not aligning their products alongside other marijuana and THC merchandise. With many retailers taking advantage of online sales, those who do offer products in a traditional storefront report their stock does not often commingle with products in a dispensary. Hemp-devoted stores comprise the majority of physical establishments carrying hemp and CBD products, while assorted-goods stores, like natural grocers or boutique beauty and cosmetic providers, are the second-most-popular location. While subject to change, and possibly reliant on marijuana’s recreational and medical legalization overall, these early trends reflect a distinct difference in how hemp professionals are beginning to position themselves in the market against multiple facets of THC products and distribution methods.

• You need to understand what this means for business strategies across the entire scope of hemp and CBD. What is the best way to get your products into the hands of consumers, and have “best practices” already been established? What are the opportunities to build on these strategies to distinguish yourself if you’re just entering the market today?